Marin Cilic vs Arthur Rinderknech

Highlights

• • Cilic's supplied season win rate (~62%) is meaningfully higher than Rinderknech's (~41%).
• • Current odds (2.40) imply a lower chance than our estimate, creating positive EV.

Pros

• + Clear statistical advantage in aggregate win-loss from the supplied profiles
• + Current price (2.40) offers a margin above break-even for our probability estimate

Cons

• - Recent Grand Slam results for both players in the supplied data are mixed, adding match-to-match volatility
• - No head-to-head or detailed injury information provided in the research to further reduce uncertainty

Details

We compare the market-implied probabilities (Cilic 1/2.4 = 41.7%, Rinderknech 1/1.58 = 63.3%) to our assessment based on the provided player profiles. Marin Cilic shows a stronger aggregate record in the provided span (28-17, ~62.2% win rate) versus Arthur Rinderknech (24-34, ~41.4%), and both have recent hard-court Grand Slam matches listed, indicating comparable surface exposure. Given Cilic's substantially better season-level win rate and experience reflected in the research, we estimate his true win probability materially above the market-implied 41.7%. Using a conservative true probability of 48.0% for Cilic versus the current decimal price 2.40 yields positive expected value (EV = 0.48*2.40 - 1 = +0.152). The edge stems from the mismatch between Rinderknech's favored market price and his weaker overall win-loss record in the supplied data. We note uncertainty from recent mixed Grand Slam results for both players, so our estimate is conservative rather than aggressive.

Key factors

• • Cilic's superior win-loss record in the supplied span (28-17 vs 24-34)
• • Both players have recent hard-court Grand Slam matches listed, indicating similar surface exposure
• • Market favors Rinderknech at 1.58 (63.3% implied), which appears higher than his supplied season-level performance warrants