Highlights

• • Market implies Andrea ~59.5% but her career win rate is only ~32%
• • Marina's deeper experience and broader surface history support a higher true win probability

Pros

• + Clear experience and win-rate edge for Marina
• + Current home price (2.12) is well above the break-even threshold for our probability estimate (1.724)

Cons

• - Recent short-term form for both players shows losses, adding variance
• - Andrea could be undervalued if recent improvements or matchup specifics (not in provided data) favor her

Details

We find value on Marina Bassols Ribera (home) because the market is pricing Andrea Lazaro Garcia as the favorite (away 1.68, implied 59.5%) despite a much smaller sample of professional matches and a substantially lower career win rate (10-21). Marina has a large experience advantage (559-507 over 1,066 matches) and broader surface exposure, which we view as a reliable baseline when recent form samples are noisy. Given Andrea's limited match sample (31 matches) and inferior career win percentage, we estimate Marina's true win probability higher than the market implies. At our estimated true probability of 58%, the home price 2.12 yields a positive expected value (EV = 0.58 * 2.12 - 1 = 0.2296), so the home side represents a value bet against the current moneyline.

Key factors

• • Large experience gap: Marina 1,066 career matches vs Andrea 31
• • Career win-rate advantage for Marina (≈52.4% vs ≈32.3%)
• • Market favors the less-proven player (Andrea) despite smaller sample and lower win rate
• • Both players show recent losses, but Marina's larger sample reduces variance of her baseline ability
• • Surface/venue exposure: Marina has played across more surfaces, increasing adaptability