Highlights

• • Implied market probability for Stakusic: 83.47%
• • Our estimated true probability for Stakusic: 60.0% (no value at current odds)

Pros

• + Clear calculation showing negative EV at current market price
• + Conservative probability estimate given identical records and no extra info

Cons

• - Research is limited — absence of H2H or recent detailed match context increases uncertainty
• - If there are unreported external factors (seedings, recent practice form), our estimate could be off

Details

We compared the market price (Marina Stakusic 1.198 => implied 83.47% win probability) to a realistic estimate based only on the supplied data. The research shows both players with nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar surface experience, with no injury or H2H information to justify an 83% expectation for Stakusic. We therefore estimate Stakusic's true win probability at 60.0%, which implies required decimal odds of 1.667. At the current price of 1.198 the expected value is negative (EV = 0.60 * 1.198 - 1 = -0.281), so there is no value to back the favorite. We recommend no bet unless market prices move to at least ~1.667 or better for Stakusic (or the underdog price rises to produce positive EV against our probabilities).

Key factors

• • Both players show identical overall records and surface exposure in the supplied data (no clear form edge).
• • Market implies an 83.5% chance for Stakusic which is not supported by the provided performance data.
• • No injuries, H2H, or other differentiators in the research to justify the heavy favoritism.