Marina Stakusic vs Emiliana Arango

Highlights

• • Market implies Marina ~40.2% but we estimate ~48%
• • Fair odds (~2.083) are well below the offered 2.49, creating value

Pros

• + Underdog price contains significant margin vs our probability estimate
• + Players' records and recent results are nearly identical, arguing against a heavy favorite

Cons

• - Small sample and sparse detail in the supplied research increases model uncertainty
• - Both players show poor recent form, so outcomes are less predictable

Details

We find value on Marina Stakusic (home) at 2.49. The market-implied probability for Marina is about 40.2% (1/2.49) while, based on the provided research, both players show nearly identical records (10-21) and similar recent form on hard and clay. There are no clear performance or matchup advantages for Emiliana Arango in the supplied data that justify the favorite pricing at 1.581. Given the parity in career record, overlapping recent results, and similar serve metrics reported, we estimate Marina's true win probability materially above the market-implied 40.2%—we use 48%. At that probability, the fair odds are ~2.083 and the offered 2.49 contains positive expected value. We remain cautious because the dataset is small and recent results for both are poor, so uncertainty is moderate.

Key factors

• • Both players show very similar career records (10-21) in the supplied data
• • Recent match listings show losses for both on hard courts—no clear form edge
• • Market prices favor Arango but supplied data does not justify a large gap