Highlights

• • Market implies Hesse ~36.9% but we estimate ~42% true chance
• • Minimum fair odds for value on Hesse are ~2.381; current price 2.71 exceeds that

Pros

• + Underdog price (2.71) offers clear positive EV against our conservative probability
• + Research shows no clear advantage for the favorite to justify such a short price

Cons

• - Sample sizes and provided data are limited and similar for both players, increasing uncertainty
• - Qualifier matches and form volatility make outcomes less predictable — higher variance

Details

We see the market pricing Marina Stakusic as a clear favorite at 1.469 (implied ~68.0%) while Amandine Hesse is available at 2.71 (implied ~36.9%). The limited research shows nearly identical career records and recent form for both players (both 10-21 in the provided span) with no clear injury or surface edge noted, so the market favorite status for Stakusic looks overstated. We estimate Hesse's true chance to win at ~42% based on the parity in records and lack of distinguishing form/injury data; at that probability the away line 2.71 offers positive expected value: EV = 0.42 * 2.71 - 1 ≈ +0.138. The market also contains a small overround (~4.9%), which slightly inflates favorite pricing. Given the available odds, backing the underdog (Hesse) represents value versus our estimated probability, while backing the favorite does not.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records and recent form in the provided data
• • Market heavily favors the home player (large margin vs. plausible true edge)
• • No reported injuries or surface advantage in the research to justify the market gap