Highlights

• • Favorite priced at 1.221 (implied 81.9%)
• • We estimate favorite win probability ~78%, insufficient to justify backing at current odds

Pros

• + Conservative view avoids betting into a tight market edge
• + Clear rationale based on recent form and market-implied probability

Cons

• - Limited available data on the opponent prevents more precise probability modeling
• - If Hennemann is significantly stronger than reflected by available public data, we may be underestimating her true edge

Details

We assess Marine Szostak as a clear underdog against Caijsa Hennemann based on Szostak's recent form (10-21 career, poor recent results with only 1 win in her last 10 listed matches) and the market pricing that makes Hennemann a heavy favorite (1.221). The implied probability of the favorite at 1.221 is ~81.9%; after weighing Szostak's weak recent results and the lack of contradictory information about the favorite, we estimate Hennemann's true win probability at ~78.0%, below the market-implied 81.9%, so the current favorite price does not offer positive expected value. Conversely, Szostak's price of 4.60 (21.7% implied) appears overstated relative to her demonstrated win rate, but we see no reliable edge to back the underdog either. Because neither side shows positive EV at available prices, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Szostak's poor recent form and 10-21 career record
• • Market strongly favors the away player (1.221 => 81.9% implied)
• • No injury or head-to-head information to justify a deviation from the market