Highlights

• • Book odds imply away win ~9.1% vs our 18% estimate
• • Minimum fair odds (5.556) are far below the offered 11.0

Pros

• + Large discrepancy between market price and our conservative probability estimate
• + Both players' recent results and records support a much closer matchup than the market indicates

Cons

• - Overall sample of provided data is limited and both players have generally poor form (many recent losses)
• - If there is undisclosed contextual information (late injury, walkover, local conditions), the market price could be accurate

Details

The market prices Marine Szostak as an overwhelming favorite (1.04 -> implied home win ~96%), which is discordant with the on-paper data: both players have near-identical career records (10-21 vs 10-22) and recent form showing multiple losses at similar events and surfaces. There are no injury flags or contextual reasons in the research to justify a ~96% probability for the home player. We estimate Carolann Delaunay's true win probability at ~18%, while the market gives her ~9.1% (1/11). Using the current decimal price 11.0 produces positive expected value: EV = 0.18 * 11.0 - 1 = 0.98 (98% ROI). The minimum fair decimal odds given our probability is 5.556, well below the available 11.0, indicating clear value on the away side at current prices.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (away ~9.1%) is far below our estimated probability (18%)
• • Both players show nearly identical season records and recent losses — no clear superiority for the heavy favorite
• • No injury or surface advantage in the research to justify the extreme market skew