Highlights

• • Away player has a substantially larger career sample and winning baseline
• • Market price 1.23 offers a modest positive expected return versus our estimate

Pros

• + Clear experience and consistency gap in favor of the away player
• + Current odds sit below our required break-even threshold (1.149) for our probability, yielding positive EV

Cons

• - Edge is modest (~7% ROI) and subject to match variance and short-term form swings
• - Limited recent-match detail makes fine-grained in-play/injury risk harder to assess

Details

We assess clear value on the away player (Caijsa Wilda Hennemann). The market price of 1.23 implies a win probability of ~81.3%, whereas our modelled chance is higher at 87% based on a large experience and matches-played advantage (559-507 career vs 10-21 for the home player), greater surface versatility, and superior historical consistency. Recent isolated losses appear in both players' brief recent logs, reducing concern about form bias toward either side. Comparing probabilities: implied p_market = 1/1.23 ≈ 0.813, our p_estimate = 0.87, so EV = 0.87*1.23 - 1 ≈ 0.070 (7.0% ROI). Given typical market availability of 1.23, this represents a small but positive edge after accounting for variance.

Key factors

• • Large experience and match-volume advantage for away player
• • Both players show recent losses, but away player has deeper career resilience
• • Surface versatility favors the more experienced player; no clear injury flags in provided data