Highlights

• • Away (Urgesi) shows a slight edge vs market at current odds
• • Estimated ROI ~2.7% on a 1-unit stake under our probability

Pros

• + Current odds exceed our conservative fair-price threshold (1.695)
• + Market is offering a small positive expected value

Cons

• - No external research, form, surface, or injury data available to support the projection
• - Edge is small (≈2.7% ROI) and may be negated by variance or unseen info

Details

We find small but positive value on the away moneyline (Federica Urgesi). The market price 1.741 implies a win probability of ~57.4%; given the lack of independent research but assuming a modest edge for the market favorite, we conservatively estimate Urgesi's true win probability at 59.0%. That produces a positive expected value (EV = 0.59 * 1.741 - 1 = +0.027), so the price of 1.741 offers a slight edge vs our conservative projection. We note high uncertainty due to no available matchup/injury/form data, so the edge is marginal and should be considered higher risk than markets with clearer informational edges.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for Away is ~57.4% at 1.741
• • Conservative estimated true probability set at 59.0% given favorite status and no contrary evidence
• • High informational uncertainty (no match research available) increases variance around the estimate