Marine Szostak vs Margaux Rouvroy
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Given near-identical profiles and no differentiating info, the 4.11 price on Szostak looks mispriced versus a conservative 30% win estimate, creating positive EV.
Highlights
- • Market implies away ~84% but research doesn't support that dominance
- • Home needs only ~24.3% chance to breakeven; we estimate ~30%
Pros
- + Large margin between fair odds (3.333) and market price (4.11)
- + No injury or surface advantage shown for the favorite in provided data
Cons
- - Research is limited and lacks head-to-head, seeding, or recent match context
- - Bookmakers may have non-public information or live updates not present in the supplied sources
Details
We find value on Marine Szostak (home). The available research shows both players with nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar surface experience, and there are no clear injury or form differentials to justify the market pricing that heavily favors Margaux Rouvroy. The current market implies Rouvroy ~84% and Szostak ~24% win probability; that gap is not supported by the provided data. Using a conservative true win probability of 30% for Szostak, the home line at 4.11 offers positive expected value (EV = 0.30 * 4.11 - 1 = +0.233). The minimum fair decimal price for our 30% estimate is 3.333, well below the current 4.11, so the underdog price represents a value opportunity.
Key factors
- • Both players show nearly identical records and surface profiles in the supplied data
- • No documented injuries, withdrawals, or clear form edge in the research to justify heavy favorite
- • Current market odds imply an outsized probability for the away player compared with available evidence