Mark Lajal vs Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We do not find value on either side given the available data; the favorite's price (1.16) requires an implausibly high win probability relative to Lajal's recorded performance.
Highlights
- • Market demands >86% win chance for positive EV on Lajal at 1.16
- • Our estimate of Lajal's true win probability (~65%) produces -24.6% ROI at current odds
Pros
- + Lajal has a solid overall record (49-26) and experience across surfaces
- + If additional intel (injury to opponent or much lower opponent level) emerged, value could appear
Cons
- - Current price is too short to offer positive EV based on available data
- - No opponent data provided to confirm a mismatch; unknowns increase risk of mispricing
Details
The market prices Mark Lajal at 1.16 (implied win probability ~86.2%). Our assessment of Lajal based on the provided career summary (49-26 overall, ~65% win rate) and mixed recent form does not support an ~86% chance to win this match. We also have no performance, ranking, or injury data for Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes in the provided research, so we cannot justify upgrading Lajal's probability to the level required for positive EV. Using a conservative estimated true probability of 65%, the expected return at the quoted 1.16 is negative (-24.6% ROI), so there is no value to back Lajal at the current price. To justify a bet on Lajal the decimal price would need to be ≥1.538 given our probability estimate.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability (1.16) is ~86.2%, which is substantially higher than our estimated win chance
- • Career win rate based on provided data is ~65% (49-26), not consistent with an 86% probability
- • No information provided about the opponent, head-to-head, or injuries — increases uncertainty and prevents upgrading probability