Mark Whitehouse vs Kokoro Isomura

Highlights

• • Isomura’s broader match experience and hard-court focus favor him
• • Current odds (1.379) imply 72.5%; our model gives 74% — small value

Pros

• + Better career record and more matches played, reducing variance
• + Surface alignment favors the more experienced hard-court player

Cons

• - Edge is small (≈2% ROI) and sensitive to hidden variables (fitness, conditions, H2H)
• - Limited publicly provided match-level details increase uncertainty

Details

We view Kokoro Isomura as the clear favorite based on the research: substantially larger match sample (66 matches, 36-30) and primary experience on hard courts versus Mark Whitehouse's limited 16-match sample with a 6-10 record. The market price (away 1.379 => implied win probability 0.725) already reflects a strong favorite; we estimate Isomura's true win probability at 0.74 given surface fit, experience gap and more consistent results. At that probability the current decimal price (1.379) offers a small positive edge: EV = 0.74 * 1.379 - 1 = 0.020 (≈2.0% ROI). The margin is modest and sensitive to limited data and match-level variance, but it is positive relative to the offered price.

Key factors

• • Isomura has a substantially larger match sample and better overall record (36-30) than Whitehouse (6-10)
• • Isomura’s experience is concentrated on hard courts which likely matches the Sapporo event surface characteristics
• • Market-implied probability (0.725) is slightly below our estimated win probability (0.74), creating a small value edge