Highlights

• • Market implies Mark ~91.7% — inconsistent with his documented results.
• • Backing away at 7.00 yields an estimated EV of +3.55 per unit staked under our model.

Pros

• + Large positive EV at current odds if our probability estimate is reasonable.
• + Market appears to have mispriced a player with poor recent form.

Cons

• - No direct data provided for Natsuki Yamamoto — true matchup dynamics are unverified.
• - High uncertainty around surface/conditions and potential missing contextual factors.

Details

We compare the market prices (Home 1.09, Away 7.00) to Mark Whitehouse's documented form. Mark's career record is 6-10 (37.5% win rate) with very weak recent form (only one win in the last 10 matches shown). The market's implied probability for Mark at 1.09 is ~91.7%, which is inconsistent with his results and recent trend. Given the available data, we estimate Mark's true win probability at ~35%, implying Natsuki Yamamoto's win probability at ~65%. At decimal 7.00 for the away side this produces a large positive EV (EV = 0.65 * 7.00 - 1 = 3.55). We therefore recommend backing the away player at current prices, while flagging material uncertainty because we lack direct data on Natsuki and on surface/conditions for this specific match.

Key factors

• • Mark Whitehouse career record 6-10 (37.5%)
• • Very poor recent match form (only one win in last 10 matches shown)
• • Market heavily favours Mark (implied ~91.7%) — appears mispriced versus form
• • No data provided for Natsuki Yamamoto (introduces uncertainty)
• • Mark has played multiple surfaces; no clear advantage indicated for home