Marko Maksimovic vs Aleksandar Mihailovic
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see no value at current prices — Marko is a reasonable favourite but not at the ~80% implied by 1.256; fair price ~1.47 given our 68% estimate.
Highlights
- • Market implies ~79.6% for Marko; our estimate ~68%
- • Required decimal odds for a positive EV on Marko are ~1.471, current 1.256 is too short
Pros
- + Marko has more match experience and a larger body of clay results
- + Surface parity (both play clay) reduces hidden edges for the underdog
Cons
- - Both players have losing or marginal records at this level — outcomes are volatile
- - Aleksandar's small sample size creates uncertainty; market may under- or over-price him in either direction
Details
The market makes Marko Maksimovic a heavy favourite at 1.256 (implied 79.6%). Our assessment, using the available records and surface info, gives Marko a clear edge but not near the ~80% threshold required to produce positive EV at the quoted price. Marko has more match experience (34 matches, 12-22) and both players have primarily clay experience; Aleksandar has very limited pro data (4 matches, 1-3). Given Marko's greater sample size and marginally better form, we estimate his true win probability at 68%. At that probability the fair price would be ~1.471 decimal. The current price (1.256) is too short — EV = 0.68 * 1.256 - 1 = -0.146 (negative). Aleksandar at 3.57 would need >28.0% true win probability to be +EV; while that is plausible in absolute terms, the available data and surface parity do not suggest his chance is >28% versus the more experienced Maksimovic. Therefore no value exists at the current market prices and we advise against taking either side.
Key factors
- • Marko has substantially more pro matches and marginally better record
- • Both players are clay specialists but Aleksandar's sample size is very small
- • Market prices make Marko a very short favourite; implied probability likely overstated