Marko Maksimovic vs Giuseppe La Vela
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see a small positive EV on Marko Maksimovic at 2.52 based on a 40.5% true-win estimate versus the market-implied ~39.7%; the edge is marginal but present.
Highlights
- • Market overprices the favorite relative to career win rates
- • Home player needs odds ≥ 2.469 to be profitable vs our model; current 2.52 clears that bar
Pros
- + Current price (2.52) is slightly above our required fair odds (2.469)
- + Comparable recent form in the event reduces the favorite's apparent advantage
Cons
- - Edge is small (≈2% ROI) and sensitive to estimation error
- - Giuseppe's superior overall record and greater match volume still make outcome uncertain
Details
We estimate Marko Maksimovic's true chance at ~40.5%, which is above the break-even threshold for the current home price. Market-implied probability for Marko at 2.52 is ~39.7% (1/2.52). Marko's career win rate is lower than Giuseppe's, but the favorite's market price (Giuseppe 1.472, implied ~67.9%) appears inflated relative to his career win% (~53.8%) and both players' recent identical tournament form (each with a win and a loss). Given similar surface experience on clay and potential tournament fatigue for the higher-match-volume favorite, we believe the market slightly overprices Giuseppe. At our estimate (p=0.405) the EV on Marko at the quoted 2.52 is positive (EV = p*odds - 1 ≈ 0.0206), so a small value exists on the home moneyline.
Key factors
- • Giuseppe has a materially better career record (28-24 vs 13-24) but his career win% (~54%) does not justify a ~68% market price
- • Both players have recent identical outcomes in this tournament; form is not strongly favoring the favorite
- • Surface (clay) experience is similar; higher match volume for Giuseppe could increase fatigue risk