Highlights

• • Current home price 1.40 requires >71.4% true probability to be +EV
• • Our conservative estimate (68%) yields EV = -4.8% at current odds

Pros

• + Market clearly identifies a favorite (Topo) — lower variance outcome
• + If additional positive information on Topo appears (injury-free, strong form), price would need to drift to >=1.471 to be +EV for our view

Cons

• - Insufficient public data increases uncertainty in our probability estimate
• - Small edge threshold — slight information or market shifts could flip EV

Details

We have no external match data and proceed conservatively. The market quotes Marko Topo (home) at 1.40 (implied ~71.4%); to be +EV at that price the true win probability must exceed ~71.4%. Based on a conservative assessment with unknown surface, no injury/form details, and the typical variance in challenger-level events, we estimate Topo's true win probability at 68.0% (0.68). At that estimate the expected value on the 1.40 quote is negative (EV = 0.68 * 1.40 - 1 = -0.048), so there is no value in backing the favorite. To be profitable we would need decimal odds of at least 1.471 for our 68% view. Given the lack of independent data and the market implying a higher probability than our conservative estimate, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • No external match/injury/form data available — we use conservative baseline assumptions
• • Market-implied probability for home (1.40) = 71.4% which exceeds our conservative true estimate (68%)
• • Small margin between market and our estimate creates negative EV at available prices