Marko Topo vs Kilian Feldbausch
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on the home side (Marko Topo) at 2.04 based on a higher estimated true win probability (52.5%) than the market implies, producing ~7.1% ROI.
Highlights
- • Current market implies Topo ~49.0%, we estimate ~52.5%
- • Implied fair odds for Topo are ~1.905; market 2.04 offers value
Pros
- + Stronger career win rate and overall record
- + Current odds exceed our minimum fair-price threshold, yielding positive EV
Cons
- - Very limited supplied information on grass form for either player
- - No head-to-head data and some short-term form uncertainty raise match variance
Details
We believe Marko Topo is undervalued at the current market price. Topo's career win rate (44-21) is noticeably stronger than Kilian Feldbausch's (36-29) and, despite both players having little documented grass experience in the provided research, Topo's higher baseline performance suggests a better-than-market chance of winning. The market gives Feldbausch a 55.2% implied chance (1/1.813) while Topo is priced at a 49.0% implied chance (1/2.04). We estimate Topo's true win probability at ~52.5%, which implies fair odds of 1.905; the offered 2.04 therefore contains value. Key uncertainties (no H2H, limited grass data, short-term form noise) increase variance, but the pricing gap versus our estimated probability produces a positive expected value at current odds.
Key factors
- • Topo's superior career win-loss record (44-21) vs Feldbausch (36-29)
- • Both players have limited/no documented grass experience in the provided data — increases variance
- • Market favors Feldbausch; Topo priced at a decimal that exceeds our fair-odds threshold