Highlights

• • Strombachs slight historical edge supports an above-market win probability
• • Current odds 3.00 exceed our minimum fair odds (2.778), producing value

Pros

• + Clear numerical edge in win-rate metrics in the supplied data
• + Price contains bookmaker margin and appears to over-favor the home player

Cons

• - Margin of advantage is small — estimation error could erase the modest EV
• - No head-to-head or venue-specific advantage data in the research to strongly separate the players

Details

The market strongly favors Marko Topo at 1.36 (implied 73.5%) while Robert Strombachs is available at 3.00 (implied 33.3%). Both players have very similar career records on clay/hard and recent clay results, with Strombachs holding a marginally better overall win rate (47-20 vs 44-21). Given the close profiles and lack of injury or sharp form advantage for Topo in the provided research, we assess the bookmaker has overstated Topo's edge. We estimate Strombachs' true win probability at 36.0%, which requires minimum fair decimal odds of 2.778; the offered 3.00 therefore offers positive expected value. Calculations: market overround ~6.8%; our EV at 3.00 = 0.36*3.00 - 1 = +0.08 (8% ROI per unit). We use the supplied current price of 3.00 for the EV calculation.

Key factors

• • Very similar career win-loss records on clay/hard; Strombachs has a slight overall edge
• • Recent matches in research are on clay for both players with mixed results—no clear form gap
• • Market-implied probability for Topo (73.5%) looks rich relative to available performance evidence, creating value on the underdog