Marko Topo vs Janis Graski

Highlights

• • Topo: established player with significant match volume and wins on clay
• • Graski: extremely limited sample (0-3) and no demonstrated wins — upset risk exists but is small

Pros

• + Clear qualitative mismatch favoring Topo
• + Surface and form data both point to a Topo advantage

Cons

• - Available favorite price (1.01) leaves no margin for errors in our probability estimate
• - Tennis upsets do occur; bookmakers price near-certainty to protect against variance

Details

We compare the quoted prices to a realistic win probability based on the provided player profiles. Marko Topo has a substantial sample (65 matches, 44-21) and consistent results on clay; Janis Graski has only 3 career matches and a 0-3 record, also on clay. The bookmaker price of 1.01 for Topo implies an implied win probability of ~99.0%, which is implausibly high even against an inexperienced 0-3 opponent due to normal match variance and the non-zero upset risk in tennis. Using the research data, we estimate Topo's true win probability at 95.0% (0.95) — reflecting heavy favoritism but allowing for upset variance and limited direct-comparison information. At that estimate the break-even decimal odds are 1 / 0.95 = 1.053, which is meaningfully above the available 1.01. Therefore there is no positive expected value on the heavy favorite at the current market price. We also checked the away line (17.0); even if we assign a generous upset probability of 5% to Graski, the EV is negative (0.05 * 17 - 1 = -0.15). Given the odds available, neither side offers value.

Key factors

• • Large experience and superior career record for Marko Topo (44-21) vs Janis Graski (0-3)
• • Both players listed on clay; surface does not materially shift advantage away from Topo
• • Book odds (1.01) imply an unrealistically high 99% chance; realistic estimated win probability ~95%