Highlights

• • Implied market probability for Topo: ~59.5%
• • Our estimated probability: 62% → positive EV (~+4.2%) at 1.68

Pros

• + Topo has a stronger win-loss record on the Challenger tour
• + Current odds (1.68) offer a small but real expected-value edge per our model

Cons

• - Both players appear unproven on grass which increases variance and risk
• - Edge is modest; result may be sensitive to small changes in true probability

Details

We estimate Marko Topo is slightly undervalued by the market. Topo's career win rate (44-21) is superior to Raul Brancaccio's (39-28), and his recent form on the Challenger level is at least as strong. The market price of 1.68 implies a 59.5% chance; after adjusting for the players' relative records, Challenger experience and match-readiness, and applying a conservative discount for both players' very limited grass exposure (both profiles list mainly clay/hard), we estimate Topo's true win probability at ~62%. That differential (62% vs market 59.5%) produces a small but positive edge. Key uncertainties are the lack of grass match history for both players and limited direct H2H data, so the edge is modest and subject to higher variance than on a well-known surface/h2h matchup. Given current decimal odds (1.68) the expected value is positive (≈+0.042 per unit staked), so we recommend taking the home moneyline only at or above the quoted price.

Key factors

• • Topo's superior overall win-loss record on the Challenger circuit
• • Both players have limited or no documented grass experience → higher outcome variance
• • Market implies 59.5% for Topo vs our 62% estimate → small positive edge