Highlights

• • Market-implied Marley probability: ~75.2% (1.33)
• • Our estimated Marley probability: ~72% → fair price ≈1.389 (market is too short)

Pros

• + Clear favorite in the market (short price reflects that)
• + Jaiani's career win rate supports underdog status

Cons

• - Favorite's market price (1.33) is shorter than our fair estimate, giving negative EV
• - Insufficient data on Marley Lambert increases model uncertainty

Details

We estimate Marley Lambert to be the clear favorite but find no positive expected value at the current market prices. The market implies Marley at 1.33 (75.2% implied). From the only provided player data — Natali Jaiani's career record of 10-21 (≈32.3% win rate) and poor recent form — we estimate Jaiani's chance to win this match at ~28%, implying Marley ≈72%. At Marley p=0.72 the fair decimal price is ≈1.389; the book is offering 1.33 which produces a negative EV for backing the favorite. Backing Jaiani at 3.10 also shows negative EV versus our 28% estimate. Given the limited dataset (we have no objective profile or form details for Marley Lambert) and Jaiani's weak recent results, neither side offers value versus our estimated probabilities.

Key factors

• • Natali Jaiani career record 10-21 (≈32.3% win rate) and weak recent results
• • Book implies Marley at ≈75.2% (1.33) which is higher than our estimate (72%)
• • No provided profile/form data for Marley Lambert increases uncertainty and lowers confidence in finding value