Highlights

• • Bookmaker implies Eva ~73.5% to win, which conflicts with her ~32% recorded win rate
• • At a 40% true chance, Marta's 2.95 price produces +0.18 EV per unit staked

Pros

• + Clear discrepancy between market pricing and documented performance for Eva
• + 2.95 exceeds the minimum fair odds (2.50) for our conservative probability estimate

Cons

• - Very limited direct data on Marta Lombardini increases uncertainty
• - Research lacks head-to-head, fitness, and detailed surface-matchup info which could alter true probability

Details

We see a large disconnect between the market and the on-record performance of Eva Marie Voracek. The market prices Eva at 1.36 (implied ~73.5%) while her documented career win-rate in the provided record is 10/31 (~32%) with recent losses. With no available detailed data for Marta Lombardini in the research, we conservatively estimate Marta's chance materially higher than the market-implied 33.9% for the 2.95 quote. Using a conservative true probability for Marta of 40%, the 2.95 market price offers positive expected value: EV = 0.40 * 2.95 - 1 = +0.18 (18% ROI). We prefer a conservative estimate given limited data on Marta and uncertainty about surface/form, but even with a cautious 40% win probability the home price represents value relative to the heavy favoritism shown to Eva.

Key factors

• • Eva Marie Voracek career record 10-21 (~32% win rate)
• • Recent documented matches show consecutive losses and weak recent form
• • Market heavily favors Eva (1.36 implies ~73.5%) which is inconsistent with her recorded win rate
• • Limited data on Marta creates uncertainty, so we used a conservative 40% estimate for home