Marta Lombardini vs Francesca Pace
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We recommend backing the home player Marta Lombardini at 1.943 — our estimated 55% win probability produces ~6.9% ROI at current odds, indicating value.
Highlights
- • Pace's recent form and overall 10-22 record reduce her true win probability
- • Current home odds (1.943) are above our fair break-even (1.818), yielding positive EV
Pros
- + Price offers a clear positive expected value at our probability estimate
- + Market favorite shows weak recent results, increasing the chance of an upset
Cons
- - Limited information on Marta Lombardini increases model uncertainty
- - Market may be reacting to unknown factors (injury/conditions) not present in supplied research
Details
We view the market as overestimating Francesca Pace despite her weak record and recent form. The book implies a 51.5% chance for Marta Lombardini (1/1.943 = 0.515) and 56.1% for Pace (1/1.781 = 0.561). However, Pace's visible career record (10-22) with recent consecutive losses in early September suggests her true win probability is materially lower than the market's favorite pricing. We estimate Marta's true win probability at 55.0%, which makes the home price of 1.943 attractive relative to our fair value. Using p=0.55, the fair break-even decimal is 1.818, so the current 1.943 offers positive expected value.
Key factors
- • Francesca Pace career record 10-22 with recent consecutive losses indicates declining form
- • Market prices Pace as favorite despite limited recent success, creating price inefficiency
- • Surface exposure (clay/hard) shown for Pace but no strong recent wins on either; uncertainty favors home edge