Highlights

• • Estimated true win probability for Damm: 63%
• • Both sides produce negative EV at listed prices (home EV ≈ -0.055, away EV ≈ -0.075)

Pros

• + Damm's higher win rate and recent main-tour hard-court exposure favor him short-term
• + Both players are practiced on hard courts, so surface mismatch risk is low

Cons

• - No head-to-head to refine matchup projection
• - Market prices are tight; neither side offers a value edge versus our model

Details

We estimate Martin Damm is the slight favorite based on the provided records and surface history. Damm is 37-19 (66.1% career win rate across 56 matches) and has recent hard-court matches at the US Open; Ghibaudo is 26-18 (59.1% across 44 matches) with Challenger-level hard results. With no head-to-head and no reported injuries, we blend overall win rates and recent form and arrive at a 63% chance for Damm to win this matchup (implying 37% for Ghibaudo). Market prices: Home 1.50 implies ~66.7% and Away 2.50 implies 40.0%. At our estimated true probability, the home price (1.50) is too short (EV = 0.63*1.50 - 1 = -0.055) and the away price (2.50) is also too short for our estimate (EV = 0.37*2.50 - 1 = -0.075). Neither side shows positive expected value versus our model, so we decline to recommend a bet at current prices.

Key factors

• • Damm has a higher overall win rate (37-19) and recent main-tour hard-court matches
• • Ghibaudo is a solid opponent (26-18) with Challenger-level hard-court experience but slightly lower career win % than Damm
• • Market prices (1.50 home / 2.50 away) leave no positive EV vs our estimated probabilities