Martin Sabas vs Harry Wendelken

Highlights

• • Market implies ~86.1% for Wendelken; our model ~78%
• • Required decimal odds for value on Wendelken are ≈ 1.282; current 1.161 is below that

Pros

• + Wendelken presents clear quality and match-play advantage in the provided records
• + Both players have hard-court experience so surface mismatch risk is lower

Cons

• - Small sample for Sabas increases uncertainty, but his recent results are poor
• - Bookmaker price is so short that even a clear favorite status does not guarantee value

Details

We compare the market price (Harry Wendelken @ 1.161, implied 86.1%) to our assessment based on the provided career records and recent form. Wendelken has a substantially larger sample (35-24 career) and clearly stronger recent results versus Martin Sabas (4-7 career, poor recent form), so we judge Wendelken the clear favorite. However, the market is pricing Wendelken as almost a lock (86%+). Given the available information (records, surfaces played, and recent match outcomes) we estimate Wendelken's true win probability around 78%. At that probability the fair decimal price is ~1.282; the current 1.161 is too short to offer positive expected value (EV = 0.78*1.161 - 1 = -0.094). Because expected value is negative at available prices we do not recommend a side.

Key factors

• • Wendelken has a significantly larger match sample and better career win rate (35-24 vs 4-7)
• • Both players have experience on hard courts, but Sabas' recent form is weaker in the provided recent matches
• • Market-implied probability (86.1%) is materially higher than our estimated true probability (~78%), removing value