Highlights

• • Sabas' career win rate and recent losses contradict the 1.22 market price
• • Away at 3.95 offers substantial positive EV under our conservative probability

Pros

• + Large discrepancy between market implied probability and player form data
• + High upside if our probability assessment is correct

Cons

• - No direct data on Elijah Sanogo in the provided research — increases model risk
• - Small sample size for Sabas' record and lower-tier event volatility

Details

We find clear value on the away side. The market prices Martin Sabas at 1.22 (implying ~82% chance), which is sharply at odds with the available form data: Sabas has a 4-7 career record (≈36% win rate) with multiple recent losses at M25 level. There is no opponent data in the provided research to suggest Sanogo is a heavy underdog, so the market’s heavy favoritism towards Sabas looks overstated. Conservatively we estimate Elijah Sanogo's chance to win at 64%; at the quoted away price of 3.95 that yields a positive expected value (EV = 0.64 * 3.95 - 1 = 1.528). Even using conservative adjustments for uncertainty, the market implied probability for the away side (≈25.3%) is far below our estimate, so we recommend backing the away player as a value bet while acknowledging elevated uncertainty due to limited opponent data.

Key factors

• • Martin Sabas has a 4-7 career record (~36% win rate) and recent losing form
• • Market prices Sabas as an ~82% favorite (1.22), which conflicts with his recent results
• • No opponent details provided — increases variance but does not justify the heavy market favorite price