Highlights

• • Market implies ~75% for Sabas but we estimate Sabas closer to ~35%
• • At 3.10 the away side yields an estimated EV of +1.015 per unit staked

Pros

• + Large positive EV at current prices based on our probability estimate
• + Market appears to have mispriced a low-form favorite

Cons

• - We lack direct data on Liam Hignett — our estimate relies on Sabas' negative signals
• - Small sample size for Sabas' career (11 matches) increases outcome variance

Details

We find a large disconnect between the market pricing (Martin Sabas at 1.33 implied ~75% win chance) and the objective evidence in hand. Sabas has just 4 wins in 11 career matches and very poor recent form (multiple recent losses), which does not support a ~75% probability. Using Sabas' record and form we estimate his true win probability near 0.35, implying Liam Hignett's win probability is about 0.65. At the available away price of 3.10 that produces positive expected value (EV = 0.65 * 3.10 - 1 = +1.015). Given the stark market mispricing and the limited but unfavorable data on Sabas, we recommend backing the away player for value. We acknowledge uncertainty because we have no direct data on Hignett, so this is a higher-risk value play driven by the heavy overpricing of Sabas.

Key factors

• • Martin Sabas' poor career record (4-7) and weak recent form
• • Market heavily favors Sabas (1.33) despite his results, indicating potential mispricing
• • No available positive evidence for Sabas vs. opponent; implied residual probability favors the away player