Martina Capurro Taborda vs Beatrice Stagno

Highlights

• • Quoted away implied probability 12.5% vs our estimate ~50%
• • Break-even odds for our estimate are 2.00 — current price is far superior

Pros

• + Large positive expected value at current quoted odds
• + Research shows parity between players, supporting a much higher true probability than the market implies

Cons

• - Extreme market price suggests a likely data/market error and can be removed or adjusted quickly
• - Research sample is limited; no head-to-head or deeper form/contextual indicators in the provided data

Details

We see a clear market dislocation: the listed moneyline (Away 8.00) implies a 12.5% win probability while the underlying research shows both players with nearly identical career records (10-21), similar surfaces played (clay, hard) and comparable recent form. There are no injury notes or other competence differentiators in the provided data that justify a ~95% probability for the home player. Based on parity in outcomes and absence of decisive edges, we estimate Beatrice Stagno's true win probability at ~50.0%, which creates substantial value versus the quoted 8.00. Using that probability, the break-even decimal price is 2.000; 8.00 is well above that, producing a large positive expected return. We flag this as a high-risk opportunity because such an extreme market quote is likely an error or will be corrected quickly, but on the provided prices the away side represents clear value.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records (10-21) and recent results in the provided data
• • No injury or surface advantage noted in the research to justify the heavy favorite pricing
• • Quoted away price (8.00) implies only 12.5% chance — far below our estimated true probability