Highlights

• • Profiles and records in the Research are nearly identical, implying a closer match than the market price
• • Away at 2.81 requires only ~40% true win probability to be profitable; we estimate Hibah around that mark

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current bookmaker price (2.81)
• + Market may be overstating the favourite despite no clear advantage in the Research

Cons

• - Limited and incomplete match-specific data (no H2H, detailed recent-form stats, or injuries) increases uncertainty
• - If there are unreported advantages for the favourite (ranking, home conditions), our edge would shrink or disappear

Details

We compare the market price (Martina 1.391 / Hibah 2.81) to the on-paper evidence in the Research. Both players show nearly identical career spans and win-loss records (10-21) and similar surface experience (clay, hard), suggesting they are closely matched. The market strongly favors the home player (implied ~71.9%), which appears excessive given the mirrored profiles and lack of clear form or injury advantage for Martina in the Research. We therefore assign Hibah Shaikh a materially higher true chance than the market implies. Using a conservative true probability of 40% for Hibah (reflecting near-parity but slight underdog upside), the current decimal 2.81 offers positive expected value (EV = 0.40 * 2.81 - 1 = 0.124). We recommend taking the away moneyline only because it shows value at current prices; the favourite price looks overpriced versus the comparable records and absence of differentiating factors in the Research.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records and surface experience in the Research
• • Market strongly favors home (implied ~72%), which seems excessive given the lack of separating evidence
• • No injury or recent-form edge for the favourite is documented, supporting higher true chance for the underdog