Martina Capurro Taborda vs Marian Gomez Pezuela Cano

Highlights

• • Both players show equivalent records and surface experience in available data
• • Current decimal 8.0 for the away player greatly exceeds our breakeven requirement of ~2.083

Pros

• + Huge positive EV at current price (EV = +2.84 on a 1-unit stake)
• + Decision grounded in symmetry of available player data and absence of distinguishing factors

Cons

• - Research is limited — no H2H, detailed recent form, or injury notes in the provided sources
• - Such large discrepancies can reflect market information not present in our sources (e.g., late injury, withdrawal risk, or bookmaker error)

Details

We see near-identical profiles for both players: career span, overall records (10-21) and surfaces played (clay, hard) are the same in the available data, and there is no injury or H2H information to separate them. The market prices Martina Capurro Taborda as an overwhelming favorite at 1.05 (implied ~95.2%) and Marian Gomez Pezuela Cano at 8.0 (implied 12.5%), which is inconsistent with the data parity and indicates a large market mispricing. Conservatively adjusting for parity and a small home bias, we estimate Marian's true win probability at 48%. At the offered 8.0, the EV = 0.48 * 8.0 - 1 = +2.84 (284% ROI per unit stake), which represents strong positive expected value. Even if our probability estimate is generous, the offered price is far above the breakeven decimal of 2.083, so there is substantial value backing the away side.

Key factors

• • Player profiles and recent records are essentially identical (10-21), implying near-even matchup
• • No injury, H2H, or surface advantage data to meaningfully separate the players in the research
• • Market shows a clear mispricing: away at 8.0 versus our conservative ~48% win chance