Highlights

• • Profiles and recent results in the research are essentially identical — implies an even match
• • Offered home odds (2.18) exceed the fair price under a 50% probability (2.00)

Pros

• + Clear value vs. fair probability under an evidence-based neutral estimate
• + No negative indicators (injury or strong surface edge) present in the research to reduce the home chance

Cons

• - Edge is modest (≈9% EV) and depends on the conservative 50/50 assumption given limited information
• - Qualifying matches can be volatile; small sample records (10-21) increase variance and risk

Details

We find value on Martina Okalova (home) because the market price (2.18) implies a win probability of ~45.9%, while the available information shows both players are essentially indistinguishable on form and record (each 10-21) with no clear injury or surface edge. With no differentiating factors in the research and qualifiers tending to be volatile/even, a neutral, evidence-based estimate is a 50% true win probability for each player. At p=0.50 the fair decimal price is 2.00; the offered 2.18 therefore represents positive expected value (EV = 0.50*2.18 - 1 = +0.09), a ~9% ROI on a 1-unit stake.

Key factors

• • Both players have near-identical career records (10-21) and nearly identical recent listings in the research
• • No injury reports, surface advantage, or head-to-head data to separate the players — default to neutral 50/50
• • Market favors the away player (1.69), creating an overlay on the higher-priced home player at 2.18