Highlights

• • Estimated true probability for Trevisan: 50.0%
• • Current price (2.35) is above required 2.000, giving +0.175 EV

Pros

• + Clear mathematical overlay vs market price based on available data
• + Both players' records and surface profiles in research are effectively level, supporting a near-50% split

Cons

• - Research lacks H2H, injury, and detailed recent-match context that could alter true probabilities
• - Small sample sizes and volatile form increase match outcome variance

Details

We find value backing Martina Trevisan at the current price of 2.35. The market-implied probability for Trevisan at 2.35 is about 42.6% while Rebecca Marino is the favorite at 1.57 (implied ~63.7%), leaving a house margin in the market. The research available shows both players with nearly identical records (10-21) and similar surface exposure (Clay, Hard) and recent form entries; there is no clear performance edge for Marino in the provided data. Given these identical profiles and lack of injury or H2H information in the research, we assign Trevisan a true win probability of 50.0%, which implies a required fair decimal price of 2.00. At the quoted 2.35 there is a clear overlay: EV = 0.50 * 2.35 - 1 = +0.175 (17.5% ROI). The recommendation is therefore to back the home player because the market price exceeds our min_required_decimal_odds and yields positive expected value. We note uncertainty from small sample sizes and absence of additional context (injuries, H2H, recent match details) which increases variance.

Key factors

• • Both players show identical season records and similar surface experience in the provided research
• • Market implies a noticeably higher probability for Marino without supporting differentiation in the research
• • Current decimal 2.35 exceeds our fair-price threshold of 2.00, producing positive EV