Highlights

• • Martina's historical win rate ~32% used as baseline true probability
• • Market heavily favors Martina at 1.01, producing a large negative EV against our estimate

Pros

• + Clear quantitative baseline (10/31) to anchor probability estimates
• + Market discrepancy is obvious — signals to avoid blindly taking the favorite

Cons

• - No usable data on Katya Ramirez, so we cannot credibly back the longshot
• - Small sample size and context (surface, injuries) are incomplete, increasing uncertainty

Details

We compare the market price (home 1.01, away 17.0) to a conservative, data-driven estimate. Martina Capurro Taborda's available profile shows a 10-21 career record (10 wins in 31 matches => win rate 0.323) and weak recent form, which we use as our baseline estimated_true_probability for her to win this match (0.323). At the quoted home price of 1.01 (implied win probability ~0.990), the market is pricing her as a near-certainty, which conflicts with her historical performance. Using p=0.323, the minimum fair decimal odds to offer a non-negative EV on Martina would be ~3.100; the current home price of 1.01 yields a large negative EV (p * 1.01 - 1 ≈ -0.674). The away price of 17.0 implies a tiny chance (~0.059) and could superficially look like longshot value, but we have no verifiable data for Katya Ramirez to justify a specific higher true probability — without opponent data or surface/context adjustments we cannot responsibly assert that Katya's true win probability exceeds the 1/17 threshold. Because no side shows defensible positive EV based on the available research, we recommend taking no bet.

Key factors

• • Martina's career win rate is 10/31 (≈32.3%), not consistent with a 1.01 market price
• • Recent form in the provided sample is poor (multiple recent losses)
• • Opponent (Katya Ramirez) data is not provided, preventing a reliable counter-probability estimate
• • Extreme market pricing (home 1.01 / away 17.0) introduces large implied-probability skew