Highlights

• • Martina's historical win rate ~32% (10/31) contradicts 1.01 moneyline
• • Minimum profitable odds to back Martina would be ~3.03

Pros

• + Clear mismatch between market-implied probability and Martina's documented career win rate
• + Research-backed conservative estimate avoids overbetting inflated favorites

Cons

• - Limited information on the opponent prevents a precise model and raises uncertainty
• - If opponent is significantly weaker (unknown), we may be underestimating Martina, but current odds still offer no value

Details

We estimate Martina Capurro Taborda's true chance to win this match at about 33% based on her 10-21 career record (10 wins in 31 matches) and mixed surface results; the market price (home 1.01, implied ~99%) is massively skewed toward her and offers no value. With our estimated probability, the minimum fair decimal odds to make a bet on Martina positive EV would be roughly 3.03. Given the provided research contains no data on Mariana Kyloranne Carvalho Soares, we cannot justify the market's extreme pricing and must avoid wagering at the quoted lines. We therefore recommend no bet because expected ROI at the current favorite price is strongly negative.

Key factors

• • Martina's career record is 10-21 (31 matches), implying a low baseline win rate (~32%)
• • Market odds imply an unrealistically high probability for the home player (1.01 = ~99%)
• • No information available about the opponent to justify the market skew, increasing uncertainty