Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Trevisan (2.33) is ~42.9%; our estimate is 50%
• • Estimated EV at current home odds: +0.165 (≈16.5% ROI per unit)

Pros

• + Quoted home odds (2.33) are above our minimum required odds (2.00) for a 50% win chance
• + No research evidence here to justify the market preferring the away player strongly

Cons

• - Research is sparse and symmetric — our 50% estimate is conservative but still subjective
• - Small sample of recent matches and lack of H2H/injury/context increases outcome variance

Details

We see nearly identical public profiles for Martina Trevisan and Rebecca Marino (both listed 10-21 with play on clay and hard and recent poor form) and no differentiating injury or H2H information in the research. The market prices Marino as the favorite at 1.60 (implied ~62.5%) and Trevisan at 2.33 (implied ~42.9%). Given the lack of clear superiority in the provided data, we assess the true win probability for Trevisan closer to 50%. At that probability Trevisan at 2.33 offers positive expected value compared to the market-implied 42.9%. Using p=0.50 and the quoted home decimal odds 2.33 gives EV = 0.50*2.33 - 1 = +0.165 (about +16.5% ROI per unit). We therefore identify value backing the home under the conservative assumption that these players are effectively even based on the supplied research.

Key factors

• • Both players show identical recorded records (10-21) in the provided research
• • Both have recent losses and play on clay/hard — no clear form advantage
• • Market favors Marino but research provides no supporting differentiation