Marton Fucsovics vs Lukas Neumayer

Highlights

• • Implied market odds: Fucsovics 88.5% vs Neumayer 16.4%
• • Our estimated fair probability for Neumayer (20%) implies min fair odds 5.00 — current 6.10 is value

Pros

• + Large margin between our fair odds and the market price for the underdog
• + Both players have recent losses, reducing the reliability of a heavy favorite line

Cons

• - Upset probability is inherently volatile in tennis — single-match variance is high
• - Our 20% estimate is conservative but still subjective given limited match-level detail and no H2H

Details

We compare the market-implied probabilities to our read of the players' profiles. The book's moneyline implies Marton Fucsovics has a ~88.5% win chance (1/1.13) and Lukas Neumayer ~16.4% (1/6.1). The raw career numbers in the research show both players win a majority of their matches (Fucsovics 43-21 ≈ 67.2% career win rate; Neumayer 48-30 ≈ 61.5%), and there are recent losses for both, so an 88.5% true probability for Fucsovics is implausibly high. We conservatively estimate Neumayer's true chance at 20% (Fucsovics 80%) given the experience gap and Fucsovics' edge, but not near the market's 88.5% figure. At 20% true probability the underdog price of 6.10 offers positive expected value: EV = 0.20 * 6.1 - 1 = +0.22 (22% ROI on a 1-unit stake). The minimum fair decimal odds for Neumayer at our 20% estimate is 5.000. Because the traded price (6.1) exceeds that threshold, the away side displays value; conversely the favorite's current price (1.13) requires an unrealistically high true win probability (~88.5%) to be +EV, so we do not recommend backing the favorite.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for Fucsovics (~88.5%) is far above either player's career win rates in the research
• • Both players show similar career-winning profiles; Fucsovics likely favored but not overwhelmingly so
• • No reported injuries and recent losses for both reduce the favorite's dominance, creating upside in the underdog price