Marton Fucsovics vs Filip Misolic
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find no value on Fucsovics at 1.32; his true win probability is lower than the market implies, so we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability (75.8%) > our estimate (70%)
- • Required odds for value are ≥1.429 versus current 1.32
Pros
- + Fucsovics is the market favorite and likely has a real edge in many match-ups
- + Both players have heavy tour activity so form is trackable and predictable
Cons
- - Available price does not offer positive EV vs our probability model
- - Research lacks H2H and clear injury/surface advantage to justify a larger edge
Details
The market prices Marton Fucsovics at 1.32 (implied ~75.8%). Based on the provided profiles both players have similar recent activity on hard courts and comparable career win rates (Misolic slightly higher), and there is no clear information on injury or a lopsided H2H to justify a >75% true win probability for Fucsovics. We estimate Fucsovics' true win probability at ~70%, which makes the 1.32 price negative EV (0.70 * 1.32 - 1 = -0.076). Given that edge is negative and the book includes an overround, we decline to recommend a wager; the book price would need to be at least 1.429 for a fair break-even on our estimate.
Key factors
- • Current market implies ~75.8% for Fucsovics (1.32) which is higher than our estimated 70%
- • Both players have similar recent form and match volume on hard courts; no clear dominance in profiles
- • No injury or H2H advantage provided to materially boost Fucsovics' win probability