Marton Fucsovics vs Jurij Rodionov
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value on either side at current prices: Fucsovics is the favorite but not priced cheaply enough for positive EV, and Rodionov's odds are not long enough to justify an underdog play.
Highlights
- • Fucsovics favored by market at 1.38 but our true probability estimate (70%) implies a small negative EV
- • Rodionov would need ~3.33+ to be +EV against our 30% win estimate; current 3.07 is short
Pros
- + Market correctly identifies Fucsovics as the stronger player
- + No obvious injury flags in the provided data
Cons
- - Fucsovics price (1.38) requires an outsized win probability to be +EV
- - Lack of H2H, surface, and team-court specifics prevents finer advantage discovery
Details
We estimate Fucsovics is the clear favorite given a stronger recent record and more top-level results while Rodionov has more challenger-level activity and recent losses; however, the market price of 1.38 for Fucsovics requires a true win probability above ~72.5% to be +EV. Based on the provided career and recent-form summaries, we assess Fucsovics' realistic win probability at ~70%, below the break-even threshold for the quoted 1.38. Betting Rodionov at 3.07 also lacks value because our implied chance for him (~30%) requires odds of ~3.33 or higher to be profitable. With no injury or H2H data provided to materially shift probabilities, neither side offers positive expected value at current prices.
Key factors
- • Fucsovics shows a stronger recent win-loss profile and experience at higher-level events
- • Rodionov's results indicate more challenger-level play and recent losses, but not enough to justify long odds value
- • Current market price (1.38) implies >72.5% chance — our estimate (~70%) is below that threshold; no injuries or H2H info provided to change the view