Highlights

• • Market-implied probabilities (home ~53.7%, away ~51.5%) exceed our fair 50% estimate due to vig
• • Minimum fair odds to justify a bet are 2.00; current prices are lower

Pros

• + Both players have comparable records, reducing informational asymmetry
• + Avoids betting when no positive EV is present

Cons

• - Data set is limited and lacks H2H, detailed surface splits, or up-to-date form/injury notes
• - If additional unreported factors favor one player, a value opportunity could exist but is not supported by current research

Details

We estimate this matchup to be essentially coin-flip based on the research: both players show identical overall records (10-21) and the available recent-match snippets do not provide a meaningful advantage for either player on the likely hard surface in Guadalajara. The market moneyline implies probabilities of ~53.7% for the home (1/1.862) and ~51.5% for the away (1/1.943), but those figures include bookmaker margin. Our fair estimated true win probability for each player is 50.0%. At that probability the minimum fair decimal price to break even is 2.00. Neither current price (home 1.862, away 1.943) meets that threshold, so neither side offers positive expected value. We therefore recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Both players show identical career records (10-21) in the provided research
• • No clear surface or form edge is present in the available data
• • Market odds are below the break-even threshold (2.00) for a 50% true probability