Highlights

• • Marvin is the deserved favorite but market odds are too short for value.
• • Deckers's price (~2.87) is tempting on variance but does not clear a positive EV under conservative estimates.

Pros

• + Clear favorite backed by larger career sample and higher win rate.
• + Both players have clay experience, reducing one major variable.

Cons

• - Market odds for Marvin leave no margin for error; EV is negative at current price.
• - Limited recent-form separation and unknown H2H make confident edges small.

Details

We assess Marvin Moeller as the clear favorite based on career volume and higher overall win rate (204-125 vs 77-59) and both players' clay experience. The market-implied probability for Marvin at 1.386 is ~72.1%, which appears overstated relative to our estimate given available form data and similar surface profiles. Using a conservative true win probability of 64% for Marvin (reflecting his ~62% career win rate and parity on clay against a competent opponent), the fair decimal price would be ~1.563. At the current 1.386, the expected value is negative (EV ≈ -0.113 per unit), so we do not recommend taking the favorite. Conversely, backing Alec Deckers at 2.87 would imply a true win probability of 36%; his perceived chance is slightly higher than the market-implied ~34.8%, but not enough to produce positive EV given our margin of uncertainty. Therefore we recommend no bet at current widely-available prices.

Key factors

• • Marvin Moeller has a larger sample and higher career win rate (~62%) compared to Alec Deckers (~57%).
• • Both players have clay experience and recent matches on the surface, reducing surface-based edge.
• • Market implies ~72% for Marvin which we view as overstated versus form and head-to-head uncertainty.
• • No injury information or decisive form advantage exists in the provided data to justify the market price.