Highlights

• • Market-implied probability 64.4% vs our estimate 72%
• • Positive EV: ~0.117 units per 1 staked

Pros

• + Clearer superior record and experience at a higher ITF level
• + Market price offers a cushion vs our conservative probability

Cons

• - Limited direct H2H and recent-match context available in the research
• - ITF matches can be volatile; single-match variance still significant

Details

We estimate Marvin Moeller is undervalued by the market. The book price 1.552 implies ~64.4% chance, while Marvin's career win-rate (41-18) and greater experience at higher ITF levels (M25) versus Daniel Siniakov (12-11, more M15 level) support a higher true win probability. Both players have clay exposure, but Marvin's larger match sample and stronger overall record give him an edge in a Meerbusch QF on clay. Conservatively we assign Marvin a 72% true probability, creating positive expected value at the quoted 1.552 price (EV ≈ +0.117 per unit). We note limited head-to-head details and some recent mixed results for both, so we keep the advantage conservative rather than extreme.

Key factors

• • Marvin's superior overall record (41-18) and larger match sample
• • Event level advantage: Marvin competing at M25 events vs Daniel at M15 events historically
• • Match surface (clay) where both have experience but Marvin's consistency projects better in QF pressure