Highlights

• • Moeller’s career win rate substantially higher than Kovalik’s
• • Current price for Moeller (2.29) requires only ~43.7% to breakeven; our estimate is 60%

Pros

• + Clear mismatch between implied market probability and our estimated probability
• + Strong career record for Moeller suggesting higher baseline win expectancy

Cons

• - Uncertainty about form on grass—Kovalik has documented grass play while Moeller’s profile emphasizes clay/hard
• - No head-to-head data and limited recent sample on this surface increases variance

Details

We see a clear discrepancy between the market and the raw performance indicators in the research. The market prices Jozef Kovalik as the favorite at decimal 1.595 (implied win probability ~62.7%) while Marvin Moeller is priced at 2.29 (implied ~43.7%). Our read of the available profiles shows Marvin Moeller with a much stronger overall win-loss record (41-18, ~69.5% career win rate across recorded events) versus Jozef Kovalik (13-26, ~33.3%). Recent match lines show both have been playing challengers on clay, but Kovalik’s overall results and win rate are substantially weaker. Even allowing for uncertainty on grass (Kovalik has some grass history; Moeller’s profile in the research lists clay/hard predominately), the market appears to overprice Kovalik. We estimate Marvin Moeller’s true win probability at 60.0%, which produces positive expected value versus the current 2.29 price (EV = 0.374 per unit). Given that the breakeven probability at 2.29 is ~43.7%, our valuation indicates a sizeable edge. We remain cautious because of surface uncertainty and limited direct matchup data, but at current widely-available prices we identify value on the home player.

Key factors

• • Marvin Moeller’s much stronger career win-loss record (41-18) compared to Kovalik (13-26)
• • Market currently favors Kovalik (1.595) despite weaker recent and career results
• • Surface uncertainty (grass) introduces risk, but not enough to erase the pricing gap