Highlights

• • Moeller clearly stronger on available form and volume of matches
• • Price on Moeller is too short to be profitable unless his win chance exceeds ~95.8%

Pros

• + Large experience and match-count advantage for Moeller
• + Recent form and win-rate strongly favor the home player

Cons

• - No grass-surface data provided for either player, which raises upset risk
• - Market price is extremely short, eliminating value unless we dramatically underestimate Moeller

Details

The market prices Marvin Moeller at 1.044 (implied ~95.8%). From the provided profiles, Moeller has a much larger sample (41-18) and clearly superior form/experience versus Kacper Knitter (4-5, only 9 matches). However, neither profile supplies grass-specific results and Knitter's small sample size introduces variance. Even assigning a generous true win probability of 90% to Moeller to reflect the clear quality gap, the required win probability to beat the available price is >95.8% (1/1.044). At our estimated 90% true probability the ROI is negative (EV = 0.90*1.044 - 1 = -0.0604), so there is no value at the current market price. We therefore do not recommend a bet. If the price moved to at least 1.111 or higher on Moeller we would consider backing him given our 90% estimate.

Key factors

• • Marvin Moeller has a much larger match sample and superior win-loss record (41-18 vs 4-5)
• • No grass-specific data in the provided profiles for either player, increasing upset variance
• • Current market price (1.044) requires an improbably high >95.8% true win probability to be +EV