Highlights

• • Home implied probability (59.9%) is well below our estimate (72%).
• • Bancalari’s 1-8 record and recent losses are the main reason for discounting the away side.

Pros

• + Strong negative form signal for the away player (1-8 overall).
• + Market offers materially longer odds (1.67) than our fair estimate (~1.389).

Cons

• - Limited direct data on Marvin Spiering in the provided research increases model uncertainty.
• - Small sample size for Bancalari (9 matches) could make probabilities noisy.

Details

We estimate value on the home player (Marvin Spiering). The market prices Marvin at 1.67 (implied win probability 59.9%). Alejandro Bancalari’s provided profile shows a 1-8 career record and recent straight losses on the surfaces listed, which strongly depresses his win expectation. With only that data available, we assign Bancalari a low win chance and allocate the remaining probability to Marvin. We estimate Marvin’s true win probability at 72%, which implies fair decimal odds of ~1.389. Since the available price (1.67) is longer than our fair odds, the bet carries positive expected value (EV = 0.72 * 1.67 - 1 = +0.202). Key drivers are Bancalari’s poor form/record, recent straight losses on clay/hard, and market favoring Marvin but not fully accounting for Bancalari’s weakness.

Key factors

• • Alejandro Bancalari career record 1-8 suggests low baseline win probability
• • Recent straight losses on listed surfaces reduce away player’s chances
• • Market price 1.67 for home requires >59.9% win chance for +EV; our estimate is 72%