Mary Lewis vs Francisca Jorge
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: The away market is drastically overstating Francisca Jorge; we see value on Mary Lewis at 8.0 given near-identical records and no evidence of a large gap — estimated true win chance ~22% vs implied 12.5%.
Highlights
- • Market implies Jorge ~94% win probability, which is unsupported by the data
- • Mary at 8.0 exceeds our fair-price threshold (4.545), producing large positive EV
Pros
- + Large positive EV at current odds (≈76% ROI by our estimate)
- + Decision grounded in parity of records and absence of contradicting injury/form signals
Cons
- - Limited available data and absence of detailed ranking/H2H info increases uncertainty
- - Bookmakers may possess outside info not present in the research; upset risk remains significant
Details
We see a clear market distortion: the away price (1.06) implies Francisca Jorge is ~94% likely to win, which is not supported by the available data. Both players have nearly identical profiles and recent records (10-21) and have been playing the same events and surfaces; there is no evidence of an injury, dominant head-to-head, or form advantage that would justify such a one-sided price. Given the parity in records, surface exposure and recent results, we estimate Mary Lewis's true chance materially higher than the bookmaker-implied 12.5% (1/8). Using a conservative, evidence-based true probability of 22% for Mary (We base this on symmetrical win-loss records, lack of injury information, and similar surface history), the current decimal price of 8.0 yields positive value: EV = 0.22 * 8.0 - 1 = 0.76 (76% ROI). By contrast, the market-implied probability for Jorge (≈94.3%) appears overstated. The minimum fair decimal price to break even on our 22% estimate is 4.545; any price above that represents value. We therefore recommend backing Mary Lewis at current prices as a value play, while noting the data is limited and the market may be reflecting outside information not provided here.
Key factors
- • Both players show near-identical career records (10-21) and recent form, suggesting a closer match than odds imply
- • Bookmaker-implied probability for Francisca Jorge (~94%) is inconsistent with available performance data
- • No reported injuries or surface-specific advantage in the provided material to justify the heavy favorite
- • Current price for Mary (8.0) implies only 12.5% chance — well below our conservative 22% estimate