Highlights

• • Market prices Mary as an overwhelming favorite (1.24) despite weak career/recent form
• • I Wen Wan's career-level edge suggests a true win probability materially above the market-implied 27%

Pros

• + Clear numerical mismatch between market odds and career/performance data
• + I Wen Wan's experience and higher career win rate support an underpriced chance

Cons

• - Both players show recent losses; short-term form could swing outcome
• - Limited head-to-head and contextual details (injuries, exact surface conditions) increase uncertainty

Details

We see a large gap between market pricing and the players' profiles. The market prices Mary Lewis at 1.24 (implied ~80.6%), but her career record in the provided data is 10-21 (≈32% win rate) with poor recent form, while I Wen Wan has a long career (559-507, ≈52% career win rate) and more experience across surfaces. Both players show recent losses, but the objective career-level evidence points to I Wen Wan being clearly stronger than Mary. Converting those career win rates into a simple relative-probability view (weighting longevity and overall win percentage more heavily given small sample for Mary) yields an estimated true win probability for I Wen Wan around 45%, which is materially higher than the market-implied ~27% (3.7 odds). At current decimal odds 3.7 the expected value is positive (EV = 0.45*3.7 - 1 = 0.665), so we identify value on I Wen Wan. We set the minimum required decimal odds to 1 / 0.45 = 2.222; anything below that removes value. We used the provided current moneyline (3.7) to compute the EV reported below.

Key factors

• • Mary Lewis career record 10-21 and poor recent form
• • I Wen Wan extensive experience and better career win rate (559-507)
• • Large discrepancy between market-implied probabilities and career-form evidence