Masha Lazarenko vs Linda Sevcikova
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We recommend backing Masha Lazarenko at 2.58 — we estimate her true win probability at 42%, producing roughly an 8.4% positive expected value versus the current market price.
Highlights
- • Away favourite at 1.455 appears overpriced given documented form
- • Home at 2.58 offers positive EV by our estimate (min odds required 2.381)
Pros
- + Clear mismatch between market-implied probability and documented player form
- + Home odds exceed our minimum required decimal odds for value
Cons
- - Limited information on the home player increases model uncertainty
- - Small sample sizes and recent match data are incomplete, raising variance risk
Details
We identify value on the home player (Masha Lazarenko). The market prices Linda Sevcikova as a strong favorite at 1.455 (implied win probability ≈ 68.7%), but her documented career record of 10-21 (≈32% career win rate) and recent losses suggest her true probability is much lower than the market implies. The home line of 2.58 implies a win probability of ≈38.8%; we conservatively estimate Masha's true win probability at 42.0% given Linda's poor form and limited upside visible in the provided data. At p=0.42 and the current home odds of 2.58, EV = 0.42*2.58 - 1 ≈ +0.084 (8.4% ROI), which represents a positive expected value compared with betting on the favoured away player at 1.455 (which looks overpriced relative to documented form).
Key factors
- • Linda Sevcikova career record 10-21 (≈32% win rate) indicates weak baseline performance
- • Recent documented matches show losses, signalling poor form coming into this tie
- • Market implies Linda ~68.7% win chance while home odds (2.58) imply ~38.8% — we see a mispricing in favour of the home underdog