Highlights

• • Giunta favored at 1.617 (market implied ~61.9%)
• • Our estimated Giunta win probability ~56% → required odds ~1.786 for +EV

Pros

• + Giunta has slightly more match volume overall
• + Market recognizes a home favorite which reflects a modest edge

Cons

• - Neither player has proven form on grass in the provided data
• - Small sample sizes and noisy recent stats increase uncertainty

Details

We estimate little to no price value on either side. Both players have very limited match history and no recorded grass experience in the provided profiles, and their season win-rates are nearly identical (Giunta 17-23, Demin 14-18). The market makes Giunta the favorite at 1.617 (implied ~61.9%); after adjusting for surface uncertainty, similar recent form, and small sample noise we estimate Giunta's true win probability around 56%. That implies fair odds of ~1.786, so the current favorite price (1.617) is too short and yields negative EV. The away price (2.25) implies ~44.4% and is slightly shorter than the complement of our estimate, so it also does not provide positive value. Given the lack of grass form and noisy stats, the market edges toward the home player but not enough to justify a bet at available prices.

Key factors

• • No recorded grass experience for either player in the supplied profiles
• • Very similar career records and recent form (limited sample sizes)
• • Market price favors the home player but is shorter than our estimated fair odds