Highlights

• • Market implies ~92% for Andreescu; our estimate is 85%
• • Negative EV (≈ -7.8%) on the favorite at current price

Pros

• + Andreescu's larger match sample and higher-level experience strongly favor him
• + Both players have recent clay activity, reducing surface-unknown risk

Cons

• - Market price for Andreescu is extremely short, leaving no value
• - Breazu's limited sample makes precise probability estimation uncertain (possibility of underdog upset)

Details

We view Stefan Adrian Andreescu (away) as the clear on-paper favorite given his much larger match sample (114 matches, 56-58) versus Matei Florin Breazu's limited experience (14 matches, 4-10). Both players have recent clay results, but Andreescu's greater depth and experience on the tour makes him materially likelier to win this match. The market price for Andreescu is 1.085 (implied ~92.2%), which we believe overstates his win probability. We estimate Andreescu's true win probability at 85% based on career records, surface exposure, and the opponent's limited track record; at that probability the fair decimal would be ~1.176. At the current market price (1.085) the bet on Andreescu is negative-expected-value (EV = 0.85 * 1.085 - 1 = -0.0778). Therefore there is no value at current prices and we recommend taking no side unless odds drift to at least our min_required_decimal_odds.

Key factors

• • Andreescu has substantially more match experience and a deeper career sample
• • Both players have recent clay matches, but Breazu's limited results lower confidence
• • Market heavily favours Andreescu (1.085); we judge that price too short relative to realistic upset risk