Highlights

• • Both players winless and limited match sample sizes
• • Home price 1.87 is too low to justify a bet given our ~52% win estimate

Pros

• + Home player has recent clay-specific matches (more comparable data)
• + Slightly higher 1st-serve stats reported for the home player in recent matches

Cons

• - Extremely small sample sizes make probability estimates unreliable
• - Opponent has matches on multiple surfaces and unknown adjustments; moneyline is nearly even

Details

We see two very inexperienced, winless players with extremely limited clay data and nearly identical moneyline quotes (Home 1.87 vs Away 1.85). Mateo Berta has only two recent clay matches (0-2) with decent 1st-serve percentages, while Michael Beltran Rubio is 0-4 across clay and hard with inconsistent stats. Given the tiny sample sizes and no clear head-to-head or injury edge, we estimate Mateo Berta's true win probability at about 52%. At the current home price of 1.87 this implies a slight negative expectation (EV ≈ -0.028), so there is no positive-value side to recommend at the posted prices.

Key factors

• • Both players are inexperienced with losing records (Berta 0-2, Beltran Rubio 0-4)
• • Berta's only recent matches were on clay (match surface), giving a slight informational edge
• • Moneyline is effectively even; required win probability for positive EV exceeds our conservative estimates